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Sunday, November 22, 2020 | History

2 edition of Forecasting inflation in Indonesia found in the catalog.

Forecasting inflation in Indonesia

Uma Ramakrishnan

Forecasting inflation in Indonesia

  • 104 Want to read
  • 8 Currently reading

Published by International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Department in [Washington, D.C.] .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Inflation (Finance) -- Indonesia -- Forecasting -- Econometric models.,
  • Foreign exchange rates -- Indonesia.,
  • Monetary policy -- Indonesia.,
  • Money supply -- Indonesia.

  • Edition Notes

    StatementUma Ramakrishnan and Athanasios Vamvakidis.
    GenreEconometric models.
    SeriesIMF working paper -- WP/02/111
    ContributionsVamvakidis, Athanasios., International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept.
    The Physical Object
    Pagination23 p. :
    Number of Pages23
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL19048110M

    address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators. Technological forecasts: concerned with rates of technological progress, which can result in the birth of exciting new products, requiring new plants and equipment.


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Forecasting inflation in Indonesia by Uma Ramakrishnan Download PDF EPUB FB2

Forecasting inflation in Indonesia. [Uma Ramakrishnan; Athanasios Vamvakidis; International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department.] -- A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and.

A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possible leading indicators of inflation.

We identify the exchange rate, foreign inflation, and monetary growth as the main variables with a significant predictive power for inflation in Cited by: 2. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FORECASTING SURVEY. The Macroeconomics Indicators Forecasting Survey is a quarterly survey to obtain preliminary information about prediction on economic condition, inflation and exchange rate and also the factors that could affect those indicators.

Indonesia's annual inflation rate quickened to % in February from % in January, above market expectations of %. It was the highest inflation rate since last November, pushed up by prices of food, drinks, tobacco (% vs %), especially due to shortages of garlic and also reflecting the recent increase of excise tax rate on tobacco products.

Forecasting Inflation. Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright. Chapter Chapter 1 in Handbook of Economic Forecasting,vol.

2, pp from Elsevier. Abstract: This chapter discusses recent developments in inflation forecasting. We perform a horse-race among a large set of traditional and recently developed forecasting methods, and discuss a number of principles that emerge from this exercise.

Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World Jan J. Groen, Richard Paap, and Francesco Ravazzolo Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. August ; revised May JEL classification: C11, C22, C53, E31 Abstract This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables.

Forecasting Inflation James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson NBER Working Paper No. March JELNo. E31,C32 ABSTRACT This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting Size: KB.

Downloadable. A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possible leading indicators of inflation. We identify the exchange rate, foreign inflation, and monetary growth as the main variables with a significant predictive power for.

A number of studies show that short-term inflation forecasting (up to two years) is best carried out using simple methods, which are based on the time series of inflation alone (for example.

Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes.

This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns.

Our estimates use monthly data for the US, – Fig. 1 plots annual inflation rates, π 12 t, for two closely watched US monthly price indexes: the consumer price index (CPI-U; the mnemonic in the figure is PUNEW 3) and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (GMDC in the figure).Although the two measures of inflation are generally similar, there are marked differences.

Forecasting the inflation rate is critical for financial planning for both companies and individuals. Without an accurate gauge of the rate of inflation we are unable to accurately forecast our actual expenses.

Forecasting the Inflation rate is also critical in decision making for stock valuations. This paper carries out a comprehensive forecasting exercise to assess the out-of-sample forecasting performances of various econometric models for inflation across three dimensions: time, emerging.

Downloadable. Since the enactment of the New Central Bank Act inBank Indonesia is mandated to pursue a single objective of achieving and maintaining the stability of the rupiah value, primarily meant as low and stable inflation in the environment of a flexible exchange rate system.

Such mandate calls for enhancement of capacity and ability to forecast inflation in Bank Indonesia The. Inflation in Indonesia (Consumer Price Index) The level and volatility of Indonesia's inflation rate have historically been higher than in peer emerging nations.

Whereas other emerging markets had inflation rates of between three and five percent, per year, during the period toIndonesia had an average annual inflation rate of around.

This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy. Forecasting Inflation James H.

Stock, Mark W. Watson. NBER Working Paper No. Issued in March NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the month horizon. Forecasting Inflation.

Our primary Inflation forecaster is our proprietary “Moore Inflation Predictor” (MIP) as a matter of fact it is the reason we began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster as a paper newsletter.

Prior to that James Moore published an economics based newsletter called “Your Window into the Future” and that is where he developed the “Moore Inflation.

Inflation was stable at % in March, in line with Bank Indonesia’s target range of % plus or minus percentage point. Inflation is expected to remain on target going forward, which should allow Bank Indonesia to continue to adopt a dovish stance in a bid to support the economy in the face of the coronavirus-induced slowdown.

ing the out-of-sample forecast performance of different specifications of the forecasting proce-dure yields a host of insights into the predictability and determinants of Swiss inflation. The paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the procedure used for uncondi-tional inflation forecasting in more Size: KB.

Forecasting In ation Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright First Version: forecasting models and methods that have been proposed. Now is a particularly good time for such a review, as there has been an explosion in the number and variety of methods in recent years.

Along with a number of traditional time series models, a host of new File Size: KB. The Asia Forecast Book focuses on market growth potential. Rather than looking at quarters or years, we prefer to look at growth in five-year blocks, which highlight trends and force us to be clear about the main changes we expect in a market.

We provide annual forecasts for the outlook to Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models by De Simone Francisco Nadal The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model.

Title: Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia - WP/02/ Created Date: 7/6/ AMCited by: 2. Feridun, M and Adebiyi, M. Forecasting inflation in developing economies discusses the methodology and data used. The empirical analysis is discussed in Section IV, while the last section concludes and points out the policy implications that emerge from the study.

Review of the Literature. Modelling Inflation in Phillips Curve Framework: Theory and Evidence. As noted above, Phillips curve framework provides one way of forecasting inflation. Actual inflation movements are influenced not only by demand side pressures but also by supply shocks.

Inflation also exhibits an inertia indicating that expectations are largely adaptive. We find that online price indices anticipate changes in official inflation trends more than one month in advance. Our baseline one-month and two-month-ahead forecasts substantially outperform Bloomberg surveys of forecasters, which only predict the contemporaneous inflation rate.

Our baseline specification also outperforms statistical benchmark Cited by: 2. play auseful role in forecasting in#ation,butthatrelyingonit to the exclusion of other forecasts is a mistake. Forecasting relations based on other measures of aggregate activity can perform as well or better than those based on unemploy-ment, and combining these forecasts produces still further Size: KB.

In economics, inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy.

Indonesia’s Economic Growth Slowdown in QI No. 22/36/DKom COVID pandemic, which broke out at the beginning of in China and has been spreading to many countries including Indonesia, has affected Indonesia’s Low and Controlled Inflation Maintained in April   This paper focuses on modelling and forecasting inflation in India using an augmented Phillips curve framework.

Both demand and supply factors are seen as drivers of inflation. Demand conditions are found to have a stronger impact on non-food manufactured products inflation (NFMP) vis-a-vis headline WPI inflation; moreover, NFMP is found to be Cited by: 5. This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation.

The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices.

We will focus on prediction of quarterly inflation as measured by the GDP deflator, 2 the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and core CPI (CPI excluding food and energy). Inflation rates are computed as π t = log (p t / p t-1) where p t is the underlying price index.

CPI data are of course available at the monthly frequency, but our focus. Inflation Development in Indonesia ECONOMIC of INDONESIA “INFLATION” Created by: Gabriella Vidiananda Ira Ardella Putri Gilang Pradipta Accounting Department Faculty of Economic University of Brawijaya INFLATION Definition of inflation We often hear the word inflation (level of inflation) on television, in newspapers, magazines, and various other.

This statistic shows the average inflation rate in Indonesia Inthe inflation rate in Indonesia amounted to about percent compared to the previous year. A substantial decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations has raised concerns about low future inflation.

An important question to address is whether these measures contain information that can improve upon alternative forecasting methods. This analysis finds that market-based inflation forecasts generally are no more accurate than surveys of professional forecasters or simple.

Stock and Watson: Forecasting Output and Inflation (the test of 31(L) = 0) should be computed using HAC standard errors.2 The stability of the coefficients in the forecasting relation (3) can be assessed by a variety of methods, including testing for breaks in coefficients and estimation of mod- Cited by: Inflation Indonesia (CPI) - The inflation chart and table below feature an overview of the Indonesian inflation in CPI Indonesia The inflation rate is based upon the consumer price index (CPI).

The CPI inflation rates in the table are presented both on a monthly basis (compared to the month before) as well as on a yearly basis (compared to the same month the year before). Macroeconomic Modeling and Inflation-Rate Forecasting at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

By Jaromir Benes, International Monetary Fund. The primary function of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is to formulate and implement monetary policy to maintain price stability. To fulfill its legislative mandate, the RBNZ is committed to keeping.

Central banks in developed nations too face the problem when it comes to forecasting inflation. The US and Europe have been missing the targets on inflation, but their forecasts have been closer than what it is in India. “No forecasting model can be % correct,” says Saugata Bhattacharya, economist at Axis Bank.

Asymmetries in Indian Inflation Expectations: A Study Using IESH Quantitative Survey Data (Paper and Presentation) (with Kajal Lahiri) Roberto Duncan, Ohio University. New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Assessment (Paper and Presentation) (with Enrique Martinez-Garcia).The Bank of Canada has a mandate to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada,” primarily through the conduct of monetary policy and promotion of a safe, sound and efficient financial system.

Understanding the macroeconomic and financial system impacts of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy is therefore a priority for the Bank.At its 19–20 February monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) trimmed the seven-day reverse repo rate to % from %.

The Bank also cut the deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to % and % respectively. With inflation comfortably within the %–% target range, the Central Bank felt it had space.